Difference between revisions of "OLED Mobile Phones Market Research and Analysis Report"

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===Advantages and Disadvantages of OLEDs===
 
  
[[Image:ADV-DIS.jpg|thumb|center|600px|[http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/662059/global_and_china_oled_market_report_2007_2012.pdf Source: MarketResearch.com]]]
 
  
 
==Cluster Analysis for TFT Display Mobile Phones==
 
==Cluster Analysis for TFT Display Mobile Phones==

Revision as of 02:42, 13 September 2011

Executive Summary

  • The OLED (Organic Light-Emitting Diode) technology is rapidly evolving, and these improvements are changing the dynamics display screens in mobile phones, TVs, camera, etc. The report provides a technological overview of OLEDS and includes comparisons with the rival technology of LCDs.
  • This report analyses the Market for OLED display mobile phones in terms of products, applications, market size and structure, competitive environment and technology, and determines its future prospects.
  • The statistical tools of Cluster Analysis and Regression are used to determine the segments of smart-phones likely to adopt OLED displays
  • Bass Diffusion Model for adoption of new technologies is applied to forecast sales of OLED display based mobile phones. This forecast is arrived at by modeling the sales on the historical sales data of certain proxy products and is graphically presented in the report.
  • The study reveals that by 2012 cumulative sale of OLED based mobile phone is expected to reach 183 million units and details the trend of these sales over the years


Research Objective

  • To provide a Technology Overview for OLED Mobile Phones
  • To provide a Market Overview for OLED Mobile Phones
  • To provide a Market Estimate for OLED Mobile Phones
  • To forecast the Adoption Rate of OLED Mobile Phones


Research Methodology

A four stage analysis was conducted:

4stageanalysis.jpg

Technology Overview

A brief understanding of the Technology behind the OLED displays forms the introduction to this report.

Market Overview

A detailed overview of the OLED Technology forms the basis of the Analysis performed using Base Diffusion Model.

Cluster Analysis

Cluster Analysis was used to determine a class of mobile handsets that is most likely to use OLED displays. Cluster analysis is a technique used to assign objects to groups (called clusters), such that objects from the same cluster are more similar to each other than objects from different clusters. To determine the cluster, certain attributes of a handset like input mode, display size, camera resolution, etc. were considered.

Bass Diffusion Model

The Bass Diffusion Model was used to forecast the adoption of the OLED display mobile phones by consumers. The Bass Diffusion model is a quantitative tool that describes the process of how new products get adopted as an interaction between users and potential users. In this analysis, the model was employed to forecast the sales of a new product by utilizing historical sales data of analogous products from the same product category as well as from a diverse product category. The market penetration for mobiles with OLED displays is arrived at with result for both the proxies.

Mobile Phone Display: Technology Overview

OLED (Organic Light Emitting Diodes) is a flat display technology, made by placing a series of organic thin films between two conductors. On applying an electric current, a bright light is emitted. OLEDs use organic semiconductor material instead of inorganic semiconductor material used in conventional Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs). Through a process called electrophosphorescence, OLEDs emit light in the presence of an electric current. Like any other diode, OLEDs permit electric current to pass only in one direction. Unlike diodes made from inorganic semiconductors, OLEDs are very flexible because they are only 100 to 500 nanometers thick - the human hair is 200 times thicker than it. As a result, OLED screens are very flexible and can be made in very large sheets. OLEDs use lesser energy than LEDs as well.

The easiest way to understand OLEDs is to compare them to LCDs. LCDs are made by placing a color filter over a white backlight source – filtering out the colors that are not wanted for each pixel. If you want to display blue, you'll have to filter out green and red. OLEDs, on the other hand, are emissive, which means that you simply need to display the colors you need for each pixel, which is made from three color (RGB) OLED “pixels.”


Mobile Phone Display Types

There are two types of display technologies which are used in mobile phones:

  1. Liquid Crystal Display (LCD)
  2. Organic Light-Emitting Diode (OLED)

Recent developments in LCD are Super LCD (S-LCD) and IPS (In-Plane Switching technology) Panel. IPS technology is used in Apple’s Retina display and LG’s NOVA display. OLED technology includes developments such as Super AMOLED, Super AMOLED Plus and ClearBlack.


Difference between LCD and OLED

The LCD uses light modulating properties of liquid crystals (LCs). The liquid crystals do not emit light directly. So, a light source is needed for proper viewing. The OLED uses organic compounds that illuminate when exposed to electric currents. Hence, a backlight is not required for OLEDs. This makes OLED displays thinner than LCD displays.


OLED Construction

An OLED can be made of a single layer of organic material but multiple layers increase efficiency and effectiveness. A typical OLED is comprised of five layers of material:

Layer Description
Substrate layer This layer supports the OLED and is made of clear plastic, glass, foil or other materials.
Anode layer The anode layer is transparent and is positively charged. When an electric current is applied, this layer attracts electrons as they flow through the OLED. As with a LED, the anode forms "holes" onto which electrons fall.
Conducting layer This layer is made of organic plastic material and transports the "holes" from the anode layer.
Emissive layer This layer transports electrons from the cathode. It is also made of organic plastic molecules but there are different from those in the conducting layer. This is the layer that determines the color of the light emitted.
Cathode layer This layer injects electrons into the OLED when an electric current is applied. Depending on the OLED and the color effect desired, this layer may or may not be transparent.



Types of OLED Construction

OLEDs can be constructed in a variety of ways to serve a variety of functions. While each type of construction uses the layers described previously, the manner in which each layer is built alters the way the OLED functions. The six most common types of OLEDs are as follows:

Type Description
Passive-Matrix OLED Anode and cathode laid perpendicular to each other
PM OLEDs are easy to make and display text and icons very effectively, particularly in small 2-inch to 3-inch screens
Active-Matrix OLED AM OLEDs are constructed with continuous film materials
AM OLEDs use less energy than PM OLEDs and have faster refresh rates
Transparent OLED Constructed with transparent materials for all five layers, a transparent OLED can be made as either a PM OLED or an AM OLED
Useful for heads-up display applications
Top-Emitting OLED These types of OLEDs use an opaque or reflective substrate that is useful for smart card applications
Best suited for an active-matrix design
Foldable OLED The substrate of this type of OLED is very flexible, allowing the OLED to be folded or rolled up
Because of their flexibility, foldable OLEDs could be attached to fabrics with a variety of applications
White OLED These OLEDs emit white light that is brighter, more uniform and more energy efficient than that emitted by fluorescent lights
Potential to replace incandescent and fluorescent lighting in commercial industrial, and residential applications


Advantages and Disadvantages

Advantages of OLED over LCD As there is no backlighting, OLED displays offer deeper black levels than LCD displays
OLED displays have better contrast ratios
Viewing angles offered by OLEDs is more than that offered by LCDs
Disadvantages of OLED over LCD Brightness levels of OLED display is less than that of LCD
Color in OLED displays are often oversaturated
The red, green and blue sub-pixels deteriorate and lose efficiency at different rates, thus color consistency worsens over time


OLED Screen Types in Mobile Phones

Type Description
AMOLED AMOLED relies on a TFT backplane to switch individual pixels on and off. Active-matrix displays consume significantly less power than passive-matrix counterparts. This makes them well-suited for mobile devices. AMOLED displays are manufactured by printing electroluminescent materials onto a substrate. The relatively simplistic process suggests that OLEDs will ultimately become cheaper and easier to manufacture than LCDs. The creation of the substrate is the most difficult and expensive part of the process. Currently, AMOLED screens are limited in supply. Coupled with high demand, their availability is restricted and they are found in high-end smartphones.
Super AMOLED Super-AMOLED displays are AMOLED displays with an integrated touch function. The original AMOLED screens had reduced visibility in direct sunlight. The thickness of the touch sensor is less than 0.001mm in Super AMOLED displays. This allows the screen to provide better images and to have great visibility even in direct sunlight.
ClearBlack Nokia introduced a display similar to Samsungs Super AMOLED known as the ClearBlack display. The ClearBlack display makes the screen more visible in direct sunlight. A polarized filter is added to the display. This allows the viewer to see through the screens reflection and view the images as they would appear under more ideal conditions.
Super AMOLED Plus The Super AMOLED Plus features a traditional three sub-pixels of equal proportion within one pixel. It has an increased sub-pixel count and density. As a result, the display is much crisper, especially when it comes to text. The tighter spacing between pixels also results in better visibility under direct sunlight. The displays are also thinner, brighter and more efficient (by 18%) than the old Super AMOLED displays.


Future OLED Mobile Screen Variations

Type Description
Transparent Displays Transparent OLEDs have only transparent components (substrate, cathode and anode) and, when turned off, are up to 85 percent as transparent as their substrate. When a transparent OLED display is turned on, it allows light to pass in both directions. A transparent OLED display can be either active- or passive-matrix. TDK began production of a see-through OLED earlier this year.
Flexible Displays Flexible OLEDs have substrates made of very flexible metallic foils or plastics. Flexible OLEDs are very lightweight and durable. Their use in devices such as cell phones and PDAs can reduce breakage, a major cause for return or repair. Samsung is readying flexible AMOLED displays for production next year.

Market Overview

The market is expected to reach $1,797.32 million in 2015, at a CAGR of 27.8% from 2010 to 2015.

Global revenues1.JPG

Key Players

The key players in the OLED screen mobile phone category are:

  1. Samsung
  2. LG
  3. Nokia
  4. Sony Ericsson
  5. Motorola
  6. Panasonic

Source: asdreports.com

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Cluster Analysis for TFT Display Mobile Phones

The table here summarizes the objective, methodology, procedure and result of the cluster analysis


Selection of model

Using the analysis, one cluster of smart-phones likely to move to OLED technology was identified for each of the two categories. For the next stage of the research - that of forecasting sales - would need the historical sales data of one particular model. For this purpose, Apple iPhone from the 2nd cluster of candy-bar phones was selected because of constraint of availability of sales data for other models like Blackberry, Nokia N96, HTC Dreamers etc.


A Comparison of LCD and OLED technologies

The radar graph here shows the comparison between OLED and TFT LCD.

ComparisonSource


The graph depicts the following things:

  1. OLEDs are thinner than LCDs.
  2. OLEDs are lighter in weight.
  3. OLEDs consume more power than LCDs but OLEDs have an inherent advantage in that they only consume power when they emit light while an LCD backlight consumes constant power regardless of the image being displayed.
  4. OLEDs cost more: The Cost of an AM-LCD is currently about half that of a comparable AM-OLED display. This is due to the maturity of LCD manufacturing processes and facilities. OLED manufacturing facilities suffer from low yields, currently at 60%-70%.
  5. OLEDs have a shorter lifespan as compared to LCDs.
  6. OLEDs have a faster response time of .01ms while LCDs have a response time about 8-12ms.
  7. OLEDs have a superior viewing angle of 180 degree while LCDs have a lower viewing angle.

Cluster Analysis

Methodology

Sample Definition: The sample space consists of moblie phones by leading players in the smart-phone mobile category. These models were identified from Gartner reports. The models of smart-phones launched in the last three years in North America were considered.

Sample Space:After defining the sample, the various key attributes of smart-phones like camera, display, etc. were defined. The data for these attributes for all the models was collected from the company websites as well as the following websites:

  • www.phonearena.com
  • www.phonegg.com
  • www.mobile.am


The pricing information was obtained from

  • www.fonearena.com
  • www.india-cellular.com
  • www.naaptaol.com
  • www.mobilestore.com
  • www.indiatimes.com.


After aggregating the data we used the k-clustering method to identify the different clusters for the samples. This technique aims to partition n observations into k clusters in which each observation belongs to the cluster with the nearest mean. Hence clusters of phones with similar attributes is achieved.

Samples were segregated into two broad categories - candy-bar phones and clamshell or sliding phones - with thickness being the differentiating parameter. This was done in order to mitigate any error due to the design of the phone(i.e. candybar,clamshell,slider), since the thicknes of the mobile could be a cause for erroneous results.

Cluster analysis results

The sheet below shows the clusters formed for the candy-bar phones.

Candy bar

The sheet below shows the cluster formed for the clamshell/sliding phones.

Clamshell_slider

Definition of Attributes:

  • Camera : resolution in Megapixels
  • Input method: two types of input methods - touchscreen and keyboard
  • Display size: diagonal length of the displeay screen
  • Resolution: display resolutions
  • Color: display color
  • Thickness: total thickness of the phone


The cluster analysis results and subsequent profiling of those clusters are summarized below:


Candy - Bar Phones


Clusters Cell phones Profile
1 Apple iPhone, Samsung i910 * Cluster 1 consists of high end cell phones
* Cell phones falling in this cluster are touch screen phones with large display size
* This is mainly targeting the premium market which is not price sensitive as the mobile phones in this cluster are priced high
2 HTC P3470, HTC touch cruise, HTC touch diamond, HTC touch viva, HTC X7510, i780 * This cluster includes cell phones with moderate display size and having touch screen facility
* Cell phones in this cluster are in the price range of medium to high, so it is targeting the upper middle to high class.
* Almost all the mobile phones falling in this cluster are having WLAN facility indicating that this cluster target trendy class people and people who prefer online games and downloads on mobile phones
3 Nokia 5320 express music, Nokia 5800 express music, Nokia 6124 classic, Nokia 6220 classic, Nokia E63, i200, i450, N6120, N78, N79, Pearl 8100 * Mobile phones in this cluster are targeted at the middle class as these phones are of moderate price and normal input
* They have small display size and moderate camera resolution, which is in sync with their target market
* Average thickness
4 E71, i550W, N5700, N73, N82, Blackberry 7130c/7130g * This cluster consists of mobile phones having high camera resolution and normal input indicating that this cluster is for people who give high preference to clicking photographs on mobile phones
* They have small display size with most of them not having the WLAN facility, so this is for people who low on using the browsing facilities
* The target segment for this cluster is the middle class segment as the mobile phones are also moderately priced
5 Curve 8310, Blackberry 8820, Curve 8300, Blackberry 8800, Blackberry bold 9000, Blackberry curve 8330 * It includes mobile phones having input through qwerty and with average display size
* Target market is Business class people who prefer using email facility on mobiles
* The mobile phones are low on camera resolution
* All the mobiles in this cluster are high priced indicating that the targeted segment for this cluster is not price sensitive


Clamshell Phones


Clusters Cell phones Profile
1 N6650, N95 8GB, E66, 6210 navi, N85 * This cluster consists of medium to high priced mobile phones and is targeted at upper middle class
* These mobile phones have high camera resolution and normal keypad input
* All the mobiles in this cluster have average display size having 16M colors
2 N96, N97 * It includes mobile phones which are high priced and targeted at affluent people who are not price sensitive
* The mobile phones in this cluster are characterized by high camera resolution, big display size and moderate thickness
* WLAN facility and high graphic resolution in these mobile phones will attract people who prefer downloading and playing online games
3 HTC dream * Mobile phones in this cluster are moderately priced and, targeted at the middle class and the upper middle class segment
* These phones have high thickness and high camera resolution
* These phones are WLAN enabled and have both qwerty keypad and touch screen input
4 N76, N6290, N75, HTC shadow, E65, i620, N6110 * This cluster consists of mobile phones with low camera resolution and mainly has normal keypad for input
* These phones have medium display size and medium to high thickness
* These are low to moderately priced phones targeted at the middle class segment

Prices for AMOLED screens

Market data was collected for the prices of OLED screens by various manufacturers

Company Name Model Number Size Resolution Colors Price/unit(in USD)
          0-99 100-999 1000 ++
Chung Yuan Technology Co., Ltd   2.2" 220x176   20.00 16.5  
               
Digiprotek Markcom India P Ltd.(Densitron) C0201QILK-C 2 176xRGBx220 262K 25.69 24.92 20.67
  C0240QGLA-T  2.4 240xRGBx320 262K 35.97 34.9 27.83
  P0340WQLC-T  3.45 480xRGBx272 16M 85.65 83.1 47.72
  P0430WQLC-T  4.3 480xRGBx272 16M 119.90 116.32 85.84
               
GLYN GmbH & Co. KG(CMEL) C0201QILKC                 2 176x220 262K 25.00   15
  C0240QGLAT                2.4 240xRGBx320 262K 30.00   20
  C0283QGLDT                2.83 240xRGBx320 262K 38    26
  P0340WQLCT               3.4 480xRGBx272  16M 60.00   35
  P0430WQLCT             4.3 480xRGBx272 16M 90     63
               
A4G Technologies(OSD) OSD020AMQCIF 2 176x220 262K 22.50 20.98 19.10
  OSD024AMQV 2.4 240x320 262K 30.20 28.57 25.40
  OSD0283AMQV 2.83 240x320 262K 38.30 36.16 33.63
  OSD0340WQLC 3.4 480x272 16M 69.50 67.25 42.48
  OSD0430WQLC-T 4.3 480x272 16M 109.00 87.00 72.00
               
Blaze Technology BDO-0240QGLA-T 2.4 240xRGBx320 262K     20.8
  BDO-0283QGLD-T 2.83 240xRGBx320 262K     26.85
  BDO-0340WQLA-T 3.4 480x272 16M     39.5
  BDO-0430WQLA-T 4.3 480x272 16M     90.6

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Bass Diffusion Analysis

One of the most important functions during the launch of a new product is to forecast the demand for that product, as it guides many other critical decisions faced by the company. Companies can schedule their production activities once they have an idea about the demand in the coming months or years. At a high level, Bass Diffusion Model is used to determine the shape of the curve representing the cumulative adoption of the new product. Bass describes the individuals who decide to adopt an innovation independently of the actions of others as innovators. Those who respond to the influences of the social system and obtain information about a new product from those who have already adopted the product are termed as imitators.

Proxies for analysis

The use of the model has been made by using the historical sales data of proxy products to forecast sales for OLED display mobile phones with an assumption that OLED display mobile phones would mimic the diffusion patterns of the proxies. Hence it was important to select the proxies carefully. We used the following for this forecast:

  • iPhone - since this was the latest revolution in mobile phone devices and consumers would show a similar adoption behavior for a new mobile phone technology even though it comes at a price premium
  • LCD/Plasma TVs & Monitors - consumers spent more money to purchase screens with superior quality by significantly increasing their budget
    • LCD and Plasma TVs and LCD monitors were treated as a single analogous product(by ascribing different weights to these) for the forecast

Forecasting OLED display phone sales using Analogous Products

The following products from different product categories were considered:

  1. LCD TV
  2. Plasma Display TV
  3. LCD Monitor

They were considered to be befitting analogies because of the following similarities:

Similarities.jpg

Weighted average for the analogous products: Weights for modeling co-efficients for the analogous products such as LCD TV, Plasma Display TV and LCD monitor had been assigned.
To judge the similarity of analogous products to OLED, we examined two criteria.

a. Market Structure
b. Product Characteristics
Criterion.jpg

The S-Graph for the cumulative projected sale of OLED display mobiles modeled on analogous products

This is supposed to be a flash animation. You'll need the flash plugin and a browser that supports it to view it.

  • In 2009 and 2010 OLED Mobile Phone market would grow slowly driven by innovators
  • From 2011 to 2015, market will grow rapidly due to the early adopters
  • In 2016 and 2017, market will growth will dwindle as late adopters take to the phones
  • 2018 onwards growth will peter, as the laggards pick up the last few models and the market will saturate
  • From 2016 the technology will near obsolescence and a new technology would replace it


Comparison of Adoption rate of Innovators with those of Imitators
The model helps to determine sales to innovators and imitators for each year:

This is supposed to be a flash animation. You'll need the flash plugin and a browser that supports it to view it.


This graph shows that a small number of innovators will kick-start the sales. OLED display mobile Phones will get off to a slow start in first 2 years. Once a critical mass is reached by the end of the second year, strong imitative effects will take over as the innovators decrease.

Detailed Analysis

The detailed modeling with a description of parameters and mathematical equations can be viewed here:
Bass Diffusion Analysis for OLED display phones

OLED Mobile Phone Projections Based on I-Phone

The S-Graph for the cumulative projected sale of OLED display mobiles modeled on analogous products

This is supposed to be a flash animation. You'll need the flash plugin and a browser that supports it to view it.

  • From Q1,'09 to Q3,'09, the OLED display mobile phone market would grow slowly, driven by innovators
  • From Q4,'09 to Q4,'10 market will grow rapidly due to the early adopters
  • From Q1,'11 and Q3,'11 market growth will dwindle as late adopters take to the phones
  • Q4,'11 onwards growth will peter, as the laggards pick up the last few models and the market will saturate
  • From Q4, the technology will near obsolescence and a new technology would substitute it

Comparison of Adoption rate of Innovators with those of Imitators
The model helps to determine sales to innovators and imitators for each year:

This is supposed to be a flash animation. You'll need the flash plugin and a browser that supports it to view it.


This graph shows that a small number of innovators will kick-start the sales. OLED display mobile Phones will get off to a slow start in first three quarters. Once a critical mass is reached by the end of the Q3, strong imitative effects will take over as the innovators decrease.

Detailed Analysis

The detailed modeling with a description of parameters and mathematical equations can be viewed here:
Bass Diffusion Analysis for OLED display phones

Comparing projections

Since disparate product categories had been used for the two forecasts, the two were compared to cross validate the results <<excel sheet with calculations>>


This is supposed to be a flash animation. You'll need the flash plugin and a browser that supports it to view it.

  • Looking at the forecast for OLED display mobile phones based on analogous products and on iPhone, both are seen to be convergent
  • This validates the forecast

Key Market Drivers and Constraints for OLED adoption

Market Drivers

  • Mobile Internet - According to Nielsen Mobile, mobile internet in the US has reached 40 million active users and is growing rapidly. Consumer video constitutes majority of this traffic.(Marketingchart.com)
  • Multimedia Applications – Increase in online video viewing will act as a major growth driver. Bigger screens coupled with greater visual clarity are expected to be preferred by this segment.
  • Technological Innovations – Recent technologies like 3G and 4G emphasize more on data and video content.
  • Online Gaming – Online gaming content is skyrocketing, which is evident from the fact that since November '07 to '08, this industry has witnessed YoY growth of 291% driven by the high end phone category, mainly the iPhone and Blackberry ( iPhone owners accounted for 14% of mobile game downloaders in November '08 )


Major inferences:

1. Consumers' emphasis on viewing is fast becoming a major factor for today's mobile industry.
2. Use of OLEDs will enable mobile manufacturers to provide all these features more effectively owing to its wide viewing angle, faster response time and higher contrast ratio.

Market Constraints

  • Cost of OLED – Although the performance benefits of OLEDs surpass LCDs, the decreasing cost of LCDs and enhancement in LCD technology is the key factor constraining the industry. LCD manufacturers will continue to improve their products and search for ways to reduce overhead costs.
  • Sunlight Readability – OLED’s emit light. Bright sunlight would interfere and wash out the image.
trulydisplays.com

Sneak Preview of some models using OLED technology

1. Apple iPhone - It’s nothing official at the moment, but word on the street is that Apple might have chosen a series of OLED displays for its next round of handsets. Such a move would certainly be in the best interests of battery life, as the iPhone isn’t noted for its battery capabilities. Considering the amount of new features that were announced in the iPhone 3.0 firmware update, it would be fairly practical to have a capacitive OLED display in the future.
2. Nokia - Nokia 6600 Slide Mobile Phone is a 3G device with large OLED display and 3.2 megapixel camera. It has curved edges and with a weight of 110g is a bit heavy to hold. The 2.2” screen supports 16 million colors and comes with QVGA resolution. The dimensions of the phone are 90 x 45 x 14mm.
3. Samsung - Samsung A877 features include a 3.2-inch WQVGA AMOLED touchscreen, a 3 megapixel camera, GPS, HSDPA and Bluetooth. And as well at it supports AT&T’s 3G service.
4. Sony - Sony Ericsson Z555 features a 1.9-inch LCD display, an OLED 128×36 external display, a 1.3 Megapixel camera with 4x digital zoom.
5. LG - One of the first handsets to get the new AM OLED, is already advanced LG SH150 DMB TV phone.
6. Motorola - The MOTO U9 is a Quad-band phone with a 2-inch QVGA LCD display, a 1.45-inch secondary OLED display, integrated music player, Bluetooth, 25MB internal memory and a microSD card slot.

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