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Impact on Sales of a Drug going Off-Patent

4,934 bytes added, 12:37, 25 January 2012

/* Further Research */

==Sales forecast for Oncology drugs going off-patent in coming time==

Many blockbuster Oncology drugs are going off-patent in the period 2011-2016. Thereafter generics for these drugs will be available in the market at much cheaper price and better insurance coverage which would affect sales of these branded drugs. We have forecasted sales for these drugs post patent expiry.

Following table gives the snapshot of the drugs for which sales were forecasted.

{|border="2" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="4" width="100%" align="center"

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#4F81BD"|'''Oncology Drugs'''

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#4F81BD"|'''Active Ingredient'''

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#4F81BD"|'''Oncology Area'''

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#4F81BD"|'''Company'''

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#4F81BD"|'''Patent expiry year'''

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#4F81BD"|'''Sales (2010) in $ mn'''

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|xeloda

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|capecitabine

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Pyrimidine analogue

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Roche

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Dec-13

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|510

|align = "center"|Abraxane

|align = "center"|Paclitaxel

|align = "center"|Taxane

|align = "center"|Celgene

|align = "center"|Mar-13

|align = "center"|66

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Biotax

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Paclitaxel

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Taxane

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Hospira

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Dec-16

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|21

|align = "center"|Temodar/Temodal

|align = "center"|Temozolomide

|align = "center"|Alkylating agent

|align = "center"|Merck & Co

|align = "center"|Aug-13

|align = "center"|403

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Vidaza

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Azacitidine

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|DNA methyltransferase (DNMT) inhibitor

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Celgene

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|May-11

|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|270

|align = "center"|Zoladex

|align = "center"|Goserelin

|align = "center"|LHRH analogue

|align = "center"|AstraZeneca

|align = "center"|Nov-11

|align = "center"|46

|}

Based on the regression equation obtained from model, sales of the oncology drugs going off-patent in coming time are forecasted for various scenarios

We have forecasted sales for three consecutive years after patent expiry. Again sales will be different for different number of generic players in the market. Each year<nowiki>’</nowiki>s forecast for each drug has further three cases of 5, 11 and 15 generic players.

Following mind map shows sales forecast for each of the drug

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