We conclude that three factors are essential for this transition:
# The most important factor is the '''[[#Botox - A Technical Overview|readiness of technology]]''', its proven effectiveness and safety
# The second factor is the '''[[#Expert Buzz|''expert buzz'']]''': Once the experts bless a new technology, its adoption accelerates remarkably# The third factor is '''[[#An Analysis of the Consumer Buzz|''consumer buzz'']]''' or word-of-mouth
We have modeled these factors for Botox and can provide the data for other emerging technologies as well, and thus predict their adoption.
{| class="wikitable" style="font-size:90%" border="1" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" align="center"
|- style="background:lightgrey"
! Year!! Milestone
|-
! 1990
| Botox use for smoothing wrinkles [[#Who Drove the Adoption?|discovered]]
|-
! 1994
| Off-label Botox usage [[#Annual Sales of Botox Procedures|starts]]
|-
! 1997
| [[#Expert Buzz|Expert buzz]] picks up
|-
! 1998
| [[#Consumer Buzz|Consumer buzz]] intensifies
|-
! 1999
| Number of Botox procedures [[#Market Overview|skyrockets]]
|}
'''[[Botox Analysis - Methodology|Click here]]''' for more details on our methodology.
==Dolcera approach==
[[Image:botox-approach.jpg|center|600px]]
==Botox - A Technical Overview==
[http://articles.directorym.com/Botox_Side_Effects-a1182167.html Source: Articles.DirectoryM.com]
==Market overviewOverview==
Initially, Botox was marketed for its medical applications in treating various muscle-related conditions but later, its marketing was broadened to include its cosmetic application—smoothing out frown lines between the eyebrows.
* Dr Arnold Klein, who is Hollywood's king of collagen, said that latest beauty booster is an injection of Botox, the toxin that causes botulism, which gets rid of forehead furrows by simply paralyzing the facial muscles.
==An Expert Buzz==* In 1990, a serendipitous discovery was made by Mr. and Mrs. Carruthers, both medical practitioners, that Botox smoothed skin wrinkles.* Alastair Carruthers, a dermatologist, published a seminal article on the cosmetic application of Botox in 1992.* Till 1992, safety of Botox use in invasive procedures was proven. Botox had also won FDA approval for at least 3 invasive procedures by then.* Between 1992 and 1997, 36 journal articles on the benefits of Botox for cosmetic procedures on skin were published. * These articles were enough to create buzz in the 15,000 approx. strong community of Dermatologists in the USA. [[Image:expert articles botox.jpg|center|600px]] === Qualitative Analysis of Expert Buzz Articles === The expert articles were published in various leading journals including the ''American Academy of Neurology, Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery & Psychiatry with Practical Neurology, and several more. ==Consumer Buzz'' ==
* The below graph indicates the number of articles published on use of Botox for ''wrinkle smoothing'' over time.
===Consumer buzz Buzz - A qualitative analysisQualitative Analysis===
*Doctors, Dermatologists, Surgeons, experts and consumers shared their experiences and gave positive reviews about the use of botox leading to initial buzz.
[[Image:consumer-buzz botox.jpg|center|600px]]
==Expert buzz==* In 1990, a serendipitous discovery was made by Mr. and Mrs. Carruthers, both medical practitioners, that Botox smoothed skin wrinkles.* Alastair Carruthers, a dermatologist, published a seminal article on the cosmetic application of Botox in 1992.* Till 1992, safety of Botox use in invasive procedures was proven. Botox had also won FDA approval for at least 3 invasive procedures by then.* Between 1992 and 1997, 36 journal articles on the benefits of Botox for cosmetic procedures on skin were published. * These articles were enough to create buzz in the 15,000 approx. strong community of Dermatologists in the USA. [[Image:expert articles botox.jpg|center|600px]] ===Expert buzz Vs Buzz vs Consumer buzz=Buzz==
[[Image:expert vs consumer buzz.jpg|center|600px]]
=== Qualitative analysis of Expert Buzz articles =Conclusion ==[[Image:Botox story in a nutshell.jpg|center|500px|Botox story in a nutshell]]
The expert articles were published in various leading journals like: * American Academy of Neurology* Journal of Neuroly, Neurosurgery & Psychiatry with practical Neurology* International Ophthalmology Clinics* Science and Medicine* Southern Medical Journal* Clinical Neuropharmacology* The Annals of otology, rhinology & laryngology* Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine* Journal of the American Medical Association* Lippincott Williams & Wilkins* Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery* Journal of Dermatological Surgery and Oncology* Aesthetic Plastic Surgery* Dermatologic Surgery* Survey of Ophthalmology == Conclusion ==* For an invasive medical procedure on consumers involving Nanotechnology nanotechnology or Stem stem cell therapy, the first obstacle will be to prove its safety.* Once the safety of the procedure is established, then its uptake can be modeled on existing customer base for other invasive procedures like Botox, Collagen collagen etc.
* Modeling on other invasive procedures is possible, since safety and efficacy of treatment are the biggest barriers to consumer adoption.
* The case of Botox classically shows that once safety of a procedure is proven, it is the experts that are driving the consumer adoption for the 'new therapy' (for an existing well articulated need). * However, for a completely new 'need' that has never been articulated by the consumers (and hence never been met), Expert Buzz ''expert buzz'' and Consumer Buzz '''consumer buzz'' will play an equally important role to drive consumer adoption. * Timescale for building adoption curves will be a function of the 'amount of buzz' created in Expert expert and Consumer consumer circles over a period of time. Amount of buzz can be measured by the 'number of opinion' leaders who drive the opinions through various media channels. * Overall, uptill until the inflection point for Botox, 36 unique Journal journal articles were needed. For the consumer buzz, 58 unique articles published in 58 different vehicles were needed.