This study identifies all the variables affecting the sales of a drug after its patent expiry and establishes a relationship between them. This study covers US only. The need gap for the study is identified by referring to industry and academic literature, news articles and Dolcera<nowiki>’</nowiki>s client interaction. After making an exhaustive list of variables affecting the sales of the drug after its patent expiry, each variable is validated, keeping the scope of the study in mind. A model is then built by running OLS Regression, which establishes the relationship between all these variables. The model also explains the impact of each variable on the sales reduction of the drug going off-patent. It analyzes the significant variables in the model and its implications on the drug going off-patent.
The model built, using OLS Regression, is an outcome of real data points and can be applied to identify the effect of patent expiry on drugs going off-patent in the future. It will give the percentage reduction in sales for a drug after patent expiry on a yearly basis.
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==Sales forecast for Oncology drugs going off-patent in coming time==
Many blockbuster Oncology drugs are going off-patent in the period 2011-2016. Thereafter generics for these drugs will be available in the market at much cheaper price and better insurance coverage which would affect sales of these branded drugs. We have forecasted sales for these drugs post patent expiry.
Following table gives the snapshot of the drugs for which sales were forecasted.
{|border="2" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="4" width="100%" align="center"
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#4F81BD"|<font color="#FFFFFF">'''Oncology Drugs'''</font>
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#4F81BD"|<font color="#FFFFFF">'''Active Ingredient'''</font>
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#4F81BD"|<font color="#FFFFFF">'''Oncology Area'''</font>
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#4F81BD"|<font color="#FFFFFF">'''Company'''</font>
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#4F81BD"|<font color="#FFFFFF">'''Patent expiry year'''</font>
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#4F81BD"|<font color="#FFFFFF">'''Sales (2010) in $ mn'''</font>
|-
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|xeloda
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|capecitabine
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Pyrimidine analogue
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Roche
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Dec-13
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|510
|-
|align = "center"|Abraxane
|align = "center"|Paclitaxel
|align = "center"|Taxane
|align = "center"|Celgene
|align = "center"|Mar-13
|align = "center"|66
|-
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Biotax
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Paclitaxel
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Taxane
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Hospira
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Dec-16
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|21
|-
|align = "center"|Temodar/Temodal
|align = "center"|Temozolomide
|align = "center"|Alkylating agent
|align = "center"|Merck & Co
|align = "center"|Aug-13
|align = "center"|403
|-
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Vidaza
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Azacitidine
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|DNA methyltransferase (DNMT) inhibitor
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|Celgene
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|May-11
|align = "center" bgcolor = "#DCE6F1"|270
|-
|align = "center"|Zoladex
|align = "center"|Goserelin
|align = "center"|LHRH analogue
|align = "center"|AstraZeneca
|align = "center"|Nov-11
|align = "center"|46
|-
|}<br clear="all">
Based on the regression equation obtained from model, sales of the oncology drugs going off-patent in coming time are forecasted for various scenarios
We have forecasted sales for three consecutive years after patent expiry. Again sales will be different for different number of generic players in the market. Each year<nowiki>’</nowiki>s forecast for each drug has further three cases of 5, 11 and 15 generic players.
Following mind map shows sales forecast for each of the drug
<mm>[[Sales_Forecast_Mindmap.mm]]</mm>
==Bibliography==