Bass Diffusion Analysis for OLED display phones - Revision history

Ankitbiyani at 14:11, 19 June 2009

2009-06-19T14:11:10Z

Ankitbiyani: /* OLED Mobile Phone Projections Based on I-Phone */

2009-06-18T23:30:13Z

‎OLED Mobile Phone Projections Based on I-Phone

Ankitbiyani at 23:18, 18 June 2009

2009-06-18T23:18:35Z

Ankitbiyani at 23:08, 18 June 2009

2009-06-18T23:08:20Z

New page

==Bass Diffusion Model Terminology==
'''Some of the terms used in the model are:''' 

[[Image:Bass Terms.jpg|center|600px]]

'''Three key parameters used in the Bass Diffusion Model are:''' 

[[Image:Bass-Parameters.jpg|center|600px]]

'''Some of the formulas used are:''' 

[[Image:Bass-Formulas.jpg|center|600px]]

'''Bass Model Equations:'''

[[Image:Bass Equations.jpg|center|600px]]

'''Adoption curve for new product are generally called S-curves because of their shape.'''

===OLED Mobile Phone projections based on Analogous Products===

=='''Estimation of Parameters'''==
:'''LCD TV'''
# The historical sales data from 2002 to 2008 was obtained from secondary sources
# The cumulative sales till last year for each year, '''N(t-1)''' was calculated
# Ran '''non-linear regression''' to determine '''a''', '''b''' and '''c'''
# '''m''', '''p''' and '''q''' values were calculated from the values of '''a''', '''b''' and '''c''' by putting them in the aforementioned formulae

'''The same procedure was followed for Plasma Display TVs and LCD Monitors.''' 

:1. Weighted '''p''' and '''q''' were calculated based on the analogous products such as LCD TVs, Plasma Display TVs and LCD monitors. 
::i. To judge the similarity of analogous products to OLED, the following two criteria were examined: 
:::a. Market Structure 
:::b. Product Characteristics 
::ii. Depending on the importance of the criteria, weights were assigned: 0.4 for Market Structure and 0.6 for Product Characteristics 
::iii. Based on the similarity of the analogous products numerical weights were assigned to them on a scale of 1 to 10 for each criterion. 
::iv. Weighted average for '''p''' and '''q''' were calculated based on the '''p''' and '''q''' values of analogous products and the corresponding weights assigned to them. [[Media:Bass_Model_OLED_analogous.xls|''excel sheet with calculations'']] 
:2. Market potential of OLED phones was taken as the '''m''' value of smart-phones segment, which is 884.07 mn[[Media:Bass_Model_OLED_Smartphones.xls|''excel sheet with calculations'']] 
:3. Then forecasted the adoption rate of OLED display phones using the basic equation of the Bass Model.[[Media:Bass_Model_OLED_analogous.xls|''excel sheet with calculations'']] 

'''Comparison of Adoption rate of Innovators with those of Imitators'''
:* Sales to innovators and imitators for each year was determied based on the values of '''p''', '''q''' and '''m'''
:* '''m''' for each year was taken as '''m-N(t-1)''' - it represents the number of consumers who have not previously adopted by the start of time ''t'', this is the pool from which the new adoptions in the current period can occur. [[Media:Bass_Model_OLED_analogous.xls|''excel sheet with calculations'']]

@@ Line 48: / Line 48: @@
 :2. Market potential of OLED phones was taken as the '''m''' value of smart-phones segment, which is 884.07 million [[Media:Bass_Model_OLED_Smartphones.xls|''<<excel sheet with calculations>>'']]<br>
 :3. Then forecasted the adoption rate of OLED display phones using the basic equation of the Bass Model [[Media:Bass_Model_OLED_analogous.xls|''<<excel sheet with calculations>>'']]<br>
 '''Comparison of Adoption rate of Innovators with those of Imitators'''
 :* Sales to innovators and imitators for each year was determied based on the values of '''p''', '''q''' and '''m'''
 :* '''m''' for each year was taken as '''m-N(t-1)''' - it represents the number of consumers who have not previously adopted by the start of time ''t'', this is the pool from which the new adoptions in the current period can occur [[Media:Bass_Model_OLED_analogous.xls|''<<excel sheet with calculations>>'']]
 ==OLED Mobile Phone Projections Based on I-Phone==
@@ Line 57: / Line 61: @@
 # '''p''', '''q''' and '''m''' values are calculated for I-Phone from historical data
 # Forecaste of the cumulative sales or adoption rate of OLED display mobile phones was done based on the '''p''', '''q''' and '''m''' values[[Media:Bass_Model_oled_IPhone1.xls|'' <<excel sheet with calculations>>'']]<br>
 '''Comparison of Adoption rate of Innovators with those of Imitators'''
 :* Sales to innovators and imitators for each year was determied based on the values of '''p''', '''q''' and '''m'''
 :* '''m''' for each year was taken as '''m-N(t-1)''' - it represents the number of consumers who have not previously adopted by the start of time ''t'', this is the pool from which the new adoptions in the current period can occur [[Media:Bass_Model_oled_IPhone1.xls|''<<excel sheet with calculations>>'']]
 ==Comparing projections==
 Since disparate product categories had been used for the two forecasts,the two were compared to cross validate the results [[media:Bass-Model_OLED_comparison.xls|''<<excel sheet with calculations>>'']]<br>

← Older revision		Revision as of 23:30, 18 June 2009
Line 61:		Line 61:
	:* Sales to innovators and imitators for each year was determied based on the values of '''p''', '''q''' and '''m'''		:* Sales to innovators and imitators for each year was determied based on the values of '''p''', '''q''' and '''m'''
	:* '''m''' for each year was taken as '''m-N(t-1)''' - it represents the number of consumers who have not previously adopted by the start of time ''t'', this is the pool from which the new adoptions in the current period can occur [[Media:Bass_Model_oled_IPhone1.xls\|''<<excel sheet with calculations>>'']]		:* '''m''' for each year was taken as '''m-N(t-1)''' - it represents the number of consumers who have not previously adopted by the start of time ''t'', this is the pool from which the new adoptions in the current period can occur [[Media:Bass_Model_oled_IPhone1.xls\|''<<excel sheet with calculations>>'']]
		+
		+	==Comparing projections==
		+	Since disparate product categories had been used for the two forecasts,the two were compared to cross validate the results [[media:Bass-Model_OLED_comparison.xls\|''<<excel sheet with calculations>>'']]<br>

@@ Line 26: / Line 26: @@
 '''Adoption curve for new product are generally called S-curves because of their shape.'''
-===OLED Mobile Phone projections based on Analogous Products===
+==OLED Mobile Phone projections based on Analogous Products==
-=='''Estimation of Parameters'''==
+==='''Estimation of Parameters'''===
 :'''LCD TV'''
 # The historical sales data from 2002 to 2008 was obtained from secondary sources
 # The cumulative sales till last year for each year, '''N(t-1)''' was calculated
-# Ran '''non-linear regression''' to determine '''a''', '''b''' and '''c'''
+# '''Non-linear regression'''was run to determine '''a''', '''b''' and '''c'''
 # '''m''', '''p''' and '''q''' values were calculated from the values of '''a''', '''b''' and '''c''' by putting them in the aforementioned formulae
 '''The same procedure was followed for Plasma Display TVs and LCD Monitors.'''<br>
 :1. Weighted '''p''' and '''q''' were calculated based on the analogous products such as LCD TVs, Plasma Display TVs and LCD monitors.<br>
@@ Line 43: / Line 45: @@
 ::ii.	Depending on the importance of the criteria, weights were assigned: 0.4 for Market Structure and 0.6 for Product Characteristics<br>
 ::iii.	Based on the similarity of the analogous products numerical weights were assigned to them on a scale of 1 to 10 for each criterion.<br>
-::iv.	Weighted average for '''p''' and '''q''' were calculated based on the '''p''' and '''q''' values of analogous products and the corresponding weights assigned to them. [[Media:Bass_Model_OLED_analogous.xls|''excel sheet with calculations'']]<br>
+::iv.	Weighted average for '''p''' and '''q''' were calculated based on the '''p''' and '''q''' values of analogous products and the corresponding weights assigned to them [[Media:Bass_Model_OLED_analogous.xls|''<<excel sheet with calculations>>'']]<br>
-:2. Market potential of OLED phones was taken as the '''m''' value of smart-phones segment, which is 884.07 mn[[Media:Bass_Model_OLED_Smartphones.xls|''excel sheet with calculations'']]<br>
+:2. Market potential of OLED phones was taken as the '''m''' value of smart-phones segment, which is 884.07 million [[Media:Bass_Model_OLED_Smartphones.xls|''<<excel sheet with calculations>>'']]<br>
-:3. Then forecasted the adoption rate of OLED display phones using the basic equation of the Bass Model.[[Media:Bass_Model_OLED_analogous.xls|''excel sheet with calculations'']]<br>
+:3. Then forecasted the adoption rate of OLED display phones using the basic equation of the Bass Model [[Media:Bass_Model_OLED_analogous.xls|''<<excel sheet with calculations>>'']]<br>
 '''Comparison of Adoption rate of Innovators with those of Imitators'''
 :* Sales to innovators and imitators for each year was determied based on the values of '''p''', '''q''' and '''m'''
-:* '''m''' for each year was taken as '''m-N(t-1)''' - it represents the number of consumers who have not previously adopted by the start of time ''t'', this is the pool from which the new adoptions in the current period can occur. [[Media:Bass_Model_OLED_analogous.xls|''excel sheet with calculations'']]
+:* '''m''' for each year was taken as '''m-N(t-1)''' - it represents the number of consumers who have not previously adopted by the start of time ''t'', this is the pool from which the new adoptions in the current period can occur [[Media:Bass_Model_oled_IPhone1.xls|''<<excel sheet with calculations>>'']]